A SIRD Model for Infection Dynamics with Endogenous Treatment Capacity and Lessons for Corona Statistics

Research Area: Macroeconomics
Researcher: Karl-Heinz Tödter
Date: 1.6.2020

Using an epidemiological SIRD model, extended by treatment capacity of the health care system, mechanisms and dynamics of a virus epidemic such as Corona are simulated by means of stylized political reaction patterns (Ignore, Shutdown, Ignore-Shutdown-Relax). Moreover, lessons will be drawn from the model for statistical analysis of corona, such as the significance of published doubling times and reproduction rates. The (dark) figure of unconfirmed cases and the accuracy of medical infection tests, which varies during the course of an epidemic, will be addressed. To measure the medical costs of corona, as well as for regional and international comparisons, an index of lost lifetime is proposed. Finally, the paper briefly discusses the economic costs of corona in Germany.

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