The Competition Effect in Business Cycles

Forschungsbereich: Macroeconomics
Forscher: Vivien Lewis,
Arnoud Stevens
Datum: 1.3.2012

How do changes in market structure affect the US business cycle? We estimate a monetary DSGE model with endogenous frm/product entry and a translog expenditure function by Bayesian methods. The dynamics of net business formation allow us to identify the 'competition effect', by which desired price markups and inflation decrease when entry rises.  We find that a 1 percent increase in the number of competitors lowers desired markups by 0.18 percent. Most of the cyclical variability in inflation is driven by markup fluctuations due to sticky prices or exogenous shocks rather than endogenous changes in desired markups.

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