1st Research Conference of the Macroeconomic Modelling and Model Comparison Network (MMCN)
June 19-20, 2017
Goethe University Frankfurt
Campus Westend
The analysis of macroeconomic models and the financial sector served as a starting point for the conference’s special topic: the effects of quantitative monetary policy in structural models. In his presentation Douglas Laxton of the IMF’s Economic Modeling Division studied the risks of excessive credit expansion and asset price bubbles. As he pointed out, distinguishing good and bad credit expansion ex ante would require a large amount of micro-level data analysis. However, "models can tell very little whether a financial crisis is coming", he warned.
Analyzing the ECB’s approach to unconventional monetary policy, Roberto Motto of the ECB argued that the the central bank started late with its unconventional monetary policy. In his view, this could be explained by the fact that the ECB’s price stability objective was defined as a range rather than a symmetric inflation target. He explained that signs of deanchoring in the face of commodity price deflation and demand shortfalls called for a bold strategy. Looking at monetary theory in a low-interest world, John Roberts of the Federal Reserve Board pointed out that monetary policy strategies based on traditional simple policy rules lead to poor economic performance when the equilibrium real interest rate is low and volatile economic activity and inflation.
About 90 participants from academia, central banks, ministries, financial institutions and companies, students and young researchers took part in the first research conference of the network. In further sessions, researchers discussed models with regard to fiscal as well as macroprudential policy, cross and multicountry models and unconventional monetary policy. Moreover, young academics presented their findings regarding issues in modelling financial markets and macroprudential policy and, on the other hand, issues in monetary and fiscal policy.
Program
(PDF)
June 19, 2017
08:00 – 08:50 | Registration and Coffee |
08:50 – 09:00 | Welcome |
09:00 – 10:15 | Plenary Session: Macroeconomic Models and the Financial Sector Chair: Volker Wieland (IMFS, Goethe University)
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10:15 – 10:30 | Coffee Break |
10:30 – 12:15 | Parallel Session: Fiscal Policy Chair: Gernot Müller (University of Tübingen)
Parallel Session: Financial Markets and Macroprudential Policy Chair: Maik Wolters (University of Jena)
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| 12:15 – 13:30 | Lunch
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| 13:30 – 15:30 | Poster Session 1: Issues in Modelling Financial Markets and Macroprudential Policy Adverse Selection and Financial Crises Countercyclical Capital Regulation in a Small Open Economy DSGE Model Financial Intermediation, Resource Allocation, and Macroeconimic Interdependence House Prices and Macroprudential Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of New Zealand Concerted Efforts? Monetary Policy and Macro-Prudential Tools Bank Capital in the Short and in the Long Run Solving DSGE Portfolio Choice Models with Asymmetric Ciuntries Financial Variables in a Policy Rule: Does It Bring Macroeconomic Benefits? Macroeconomic Model Database |
| 15:30 – 15:45 | Coffee Break |
| 15:45 – 17:00 | Plenary Session: Natural Rate of Interest Chair: Michael Binder (IMFS, Goethe University) Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest R-Star: The Long-run Equilibrium Rate has not declined by much |
June 20, 2017
08:00 – 08:30 | Coffee |
| 08:30 – 09:45 | Plenary Session: Monetary Policy, Zero Bound and International Spillovers Chair: Volker Wieland (IMFS, Goethe University)
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| 09:45 – 10:00 | Coffee break
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10:00 – 11:30 | Parallel Session: Cross- and Multi-Country Models
Parallel Session: Unconventional Monetary Policy Chair: Thorsten Drautzburg (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
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11:30 – 13:15 | Poster Session 2: Issues in Monetary and Fiscal Policy; Presentation of DBnomics Fiscal Policy Matters: A New DSGE Model for Slovakia Wage Formation, Unemployment and Business Cycle in Latvia Integrating Macrosimulation Models of Tax Policy into a DGE Macroeconomic Model: A Canonical Example The Amplification of the New Keynesian Models and Robust Optimal Monetary Policy The Missing Link: Labor Share and Monetary Policy The Effects of Fiscal Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model - The Case of the German Stimulus Packages during the Great Recession Are Nonlinear Methods Necessary at the Zero Lower Bound? Monetary Rules, Central Bank Losses and Households' Welfare: What Objectives Should the Fed Pursue? DBnomics, the world's economic data |
| 13:00 – 14:00 | Lunch
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14:30 – 16:00 | Parallel Session: Money, Finance and Fiscal Policy Chair: Werner Roeger (European Commission)
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| 15:00 – 16:00 | Parallel Session: Solution and Estimation Methods Chair: Kai Christoffel (European Central Bank) Should Central Banks Worry about Nonlinearities of their Large-Scale Macroeconomic Models? Discussant: Nathaniel Throckmorton (College of William & Mary) Entropy-Based Affine Approximations of Dynamic Equilibrium Models Discussant: Inna Tsener (University of the Balearic Islands) |
16:00 – 16:15 | Coffee break |
16:15 – 17:15 | Plenary Session: Business Cycles: Methods and Modelling Chair: Michael Binder (IMFS, Goethe University) ECB Global: Introducing ECB's Global Macroeconomic Model for Spillover Analysis Political Distribution Risk and Business Cycles |
Plenary sessions: 25 minutes for paper presentation and 10 minutes for general discussion.
Parallel sessions: 15 minutes for paper presentation, 10 minutes for discussant, and 5 minutes for general discussion.
Posters: 10 posters per session with ample time for participants to visit several posters and discuss with the authors.