Teaching in Summer Semester 2020

Ph.D. Program Seminar
Macro-Financial Modeling and the Coronavirus Pandemic

Description:

The purpose of this seminar is to give advanced doctoral students a hands-on introduction to developments and applications of structural macroeconomic models. The seminar will consist of a combination of lectures, supervision of modeling projects, student presentations and group discussions with extensive feedback. Each project, which should ideally be pursued by a team of two students, will involve studying an existing macroeconomic model from the literature, with a particular emphasis on the economic effects of the Coronavirus COVID-19 and appropriate macroeconomic policy responses. Students will be subsequently guided through the replication of the model in DYNARE and its implementation in the MMB. At the end of the seminar, students should be able to start working on a dissertation project that involves structural macroeconomic modeling. Successful participation in this seminar is a precondition for the supervision of a dissertation at the chair.

Time and Location:

Lectures will be held via online platforms, unless stated otherwise. The introductory online meeting will take place on Monday, 20th of April, 11:00 am-12:00 noon.

Registration:

To register for the seminar, students should send an e-mail to Lazar Milivojevic (lazar.milivojevic@hof.uni-frankfurt.de). Please include your matriculation number, student status, year of study and full name.  Registration should take place as soon as possible. The maximum number of participants in the seminar for credit will need to be restricted to twelve.

Requirements:

Students will be expected to give two short presentations for group feedback. The first presentation will explain the assigned paper from the literature and modeling project. It will take place in the middle of the semester. The second presentation, at the end of the semester, will report on the implemented model and policy applications. Grading will be based on presentations and model implementation.

 

Literature:

    • Atkeson, A., 2020. What will be the economic impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough estimates of disease scenarios (No. w26867). National Bureau of Economic Research.
    • Binder, M., Lieberknecht, P., Quintana, J. and Wieland, V., 2019. Model uncertainty in macroeconomics: On the implications of financial frictions. In David G. Mayes, Pierre L. Siklos, and Jan-Egbert Sturm (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Central Banking, Oxford: Oxford University Press 2019.
    • Congressional Budget Office assessment, 2005, A Potential Influenza Pandemic: Possible Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Issues.
    • Dietrich, A, Kuester, K., Müller, G. and Schoenle, R., 2020. News and uncertainty about COVID -19: Survey Evidence and short-run economic impact, mimeo.
    • Donsimoni, J. R., Glawion, R., Plachter,B., Weiser, C., and Waelde K., 2020. Should contact bans be lifted in Germany? A quantitative prediction of its effects.
    • Eichenbaum, M.S., Rebelo, S. and Trabandt, M., 2020. The macroeconomics of epidemics (No. w26882). National Bureau of Economic Research.
    • Faria-e-Castro, M., 2020. Fiscal Policy during a Pandemic (No. 2020-006).
    • Gros, C., Valenti, R., Valenti, K. and Gros, D., 2020. Strategies for controlling the medical and socio-economic costs of the Corona pandemic. arXiv preprint arXiv:2004.00493.
    • Jonung, L. and Roeger, W., 2006. The macroeconomic effects of a pandemic in Europe-A model-based assessment. Available at SSRN 920851.
    • Keogh‐Brown, M.R., Wren‐Lewis, S., Edmunds, W.J., Beutels, P. and Smith, R.D., 2010. The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic. Health economics, 19(11), pp.1345-1360.
    • McKibbin, W.J. and Fernando, R., 2020. The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19: Seven scenarios.
    • McKibbin, W.J. and Sidorenko, A., 2006. Global macroeconomic consequences of pandemic influenza (p. 79). Sydney, Australia: Lowy Institute for International Policy.
    • Sebastian, S. and Volker, W., 2012. The New Keynesian Approach to Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling: Models, Methods and Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation. Goethe University of Frankfurt: Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability. p1-114.
    • Wieland, V., Afanasyeva, E., Kuete, M. and Yoo, J., 2016. New methods for macro-financial model comparison and policy analysis. In Handbook of Macroeconomics (Vol. 2, pp. 1241-1319). Elsevier.
    • Wieland, V. and Wolters, M., 2013. Forecasting and policy making. In Handbook of economic forecasting (Vol. 2, pp. 239-325). Elsevier.