1. DVFA Geldpolitik-Forum
October 31, 2019
Casino 1.801
Campus Westend
Goethe University Frankfurt
Summary
The day before Christine Lagarde took office as president of the European Central Bank (ECB), monetary policy in the euro area was in the center of discussion at a DVFA forum jointly organized with the IMFS. In his opening speech, Ludger Schuknecht, Deputy Secretary General of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, made a claim for unburdening monetary policy makers and building confidence. In a situation where ageing will weigh on growth, savings and public finances, banks are major holders of government debt, and the debt ratio is still high in the aftermath of the financial crisis, Schuknecht appealed to “strengthen the triangle of stability”. In his view, this means implementing structural reforms, rebuilding fiscal buffers and reducing regulatory privileges.
Discussing the inflation trend in the euro area, Jörg Krämer of Commerzbank supported a “monetary policy of comprehensive stabilization” in order to safeguard price stability and financial stability. In his opinion, this could have a dampening effect on the financial cycle, “turning away from boom bust cycles”. In the first panel on ECB strategy, chaired by Ingo Mainert of Allianz Global Investors, Volker Wieland, IMFS, called for a more rule-oriented monetary policy. Referring to the Monetary Policy Report of the Federal Reserve, he demonstrated how central banks integrate monetary policy rules such as the Taylor rule into their strategy. Moreover, he asked the ECB “to take more and broader inflation measures into account” and not to focus solely on the HICP. Krämer, on the other hand, proposed an inflation target between 1.25 and 2.25 percent. In his view, low inflation was not detrimental. Gunter Schnabl of Leipzig University called for putting a greater emphasis on asset prices instead of inflation.
In a panel on the ECB’s independence as a supranational institution, legal experts Markus Kerber of TU Berlin and Christoph Degenhart of Leipzig University criticized the ECJ jurisprudence regarding the ECB’s asset purchases. Wieland pointed out that the Federal Constitutional Court was still dealing with the ECB’s PSPP program. “QE is a regular monetary policy instrument,” he said, arguing that now the court had to clarify whether QE was proportionate.
In further contributions, Frank Engels, Union Investment, warned against an increasing Japanization of the euro area, and Ulrich Bindseil of the ECB explained how the ECB uses equilibrium interest rates within its monetary policy.
Programm
| 08:15 - 09:00 |
Ankunft/Anmeldung |
| 09:00 - 09:15 |
Begrüßung und Eröffnung Ingo R. Mainert, Allianz Global Investors, CIO Multi Asset Europe, stv. Vorstandsvorsitzender DVFA e.V., stv. Leiter DVFA Grußwort Prof. Dr. Bernd Rudolph, LMU München |
| 09:15 - 09:45 |
Eröffnungsrede “Geldpolitik im Lichte struktureller und fiskalischer Herausforderungen" |
| 09:45 - 10:15 |
Impulsvortrag “Preisniveausteuerung als Alternative” “Diskretionäre Entscheidungen versus Regelorientierung” |
| 10:15 - 11:00 |
Podiumsdiskussion Dr. Jörg Krämer, Commerzbank AG, Chefvolkswirt Prof. Volker Wieland, Ph.D., Goethe-Universität Frankfurt, Geschäftsführender Direktor Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS); Mitglied im Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung Prof. Dr. Gunther Schnabl, Universität Leipzig, Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik, Leiter Moderation: Ingo R. Mainert | Allianz Global Investors, CIO Multi Asset Europe, stv. Vorstandsvorsitzender DVFA e.V., stv. Leiter DVFA Kommission Geldpolitik |
| 11:00 - 11:30 |
Kaffeepause |
| 11:30 - 11:45 |
Impulsvortrag “Unabhängigkeit oder grenzenlose Macht?” |
| 11:45 - 12:30 |
Podiumsdiskussion Prof. Dr. Christoph Degenhart, Universität Leipzig, Lehrstuhl für Staats- und Verwaltungsrecht sowie Medienrecht Prof. Dr. Stefan Homburg, StB, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Institut für Öffentliche Finanzen Stefan Schneider, Deutsche Bank AG, Chefökonom Deutschland Moderation: Prof. Dr. Markus C. Kerber, Technische Universität Berlin, Mitglied DVFA Kommission Geldpolitik |
| 12:30 - 13:00 |
Fragerunde für den Vormittag Moderation: Ingo R. Mainert, Allianz Global Investors, CIO Multi Asset Europe, stv. Vorstandsvorsitzender DVFA e.V., stv. Leiter DVFA Kommission Geldpolitik |
| 13:00 - 14:00 |
Mittagessen |
| 14:00 |
Impulsvortrag "Japanisierung der Eurozone?" |
| 14:15 - 15:00 |
Podiumsdiskussion Prof. Dr. Ulrich Bindseil, EZB, Leiter Market Operations Dr. Jan Holthusen, DZ BANK, Leiter Fixed Income Research Dr. Ludger Schuknecht, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Deputy Secretary General Moderation: Dr. Frank Engels, Union Investment Privatfonds, Managing Director, CIO, Vorstandsmitglied DVFA e.V., Mitglied DVFA Kommission Geldpolitik |
| 15:00 - 15:30 |
Kaffeepause |
| 15:30 - 15:45 |
Impulsvortrag “Geldpolitik und Finanzstabilität – zwei Seiten einer Medaille?” |
| 15:45 - 16:45 |
Podiumsdiskussion Mathias Drehmann, Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Head of Emerging Markets, Monetary and Economic Department Prof. Dr. Helmut Gründl, ICIR - International Center for Insurance Regulation, Managing Director Dr. Benjamin Weigert, Deutsche Bundesbank, Leiter des Zentralbereichs Finanzstabilität Moderation: Uwe Burkert, LBBW, Chefvolkswirt, Leiter Research, Mitglied DVFA Kommission Geldpolitik & Dr. Klaus |
| 16:45 - 17:30 |
Fragerunde für den Nachmittag Moderation: Ingo R. Mainert, Allianz Global Investors, CIO Multi Asset Europe, stv. Vorstandsvorsitzender DVFA e.V., stv. Leiter DVFA Kommission Geldpolitik |
| 17:30 - 18:00 |
Fazit Ingo R. Mainert, Allianz Global Investors, CIO Multi Asset Europe, stv. Vorstandsvorsitzender DVFA e.V., stv. Leiter DVFA Kommission Geldpolitik Dr. Frank Engels, Union Investment Privatfonds, Managing Director, CIO, Vorstandsmitglied DVFA e.V., Mitglied DVFA |
| 18:00 - 18:30 |
Abschlussvortrag "Alternative zum Negativzins – Neo-Fisher-Effekt" |