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2nd Research Conference of the Macroeconomic Modelling and Model Comparison Network (MMCN)

June 7-8, 2018
Hoover Institution
Stanford University

Summary

On June 7 and 8, the Macroeconomic Modelling and Model Comparison Network (MMCN) organized its 2nd Research Conference. With the help of structural macroeconomic models, representatives of central banks and researchers provided explanatory approaches regarding the Great Recession and its aftermath. The MMCN is a joint network of the Hoover Institution and the IMFS under the auspices of the London-based Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). The 2nd Research Conference of the MMCN took place at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, California.

The MMCN network forms part of the Macroeconomic Model Comparison Initiative (MMCI), a joint research project by the Hoover Institution at Stanford and the IMFS, which is financially supported by the Sloan Foundation. The MMCI is led by John Taylor, Hoover Institution at Stanford University, as well as Volker Wieland and Michael Binder, IMFS and Goethe University.

Lars Peter Hansen of the University of Chicago gave the keynote lecture on “Comparative Valuation Dynamics in Models with Financing Restrictions”. The expert on economic dynamics and statistical methods is a recipient of the 2013 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for his early research. John B. Taylor gave the dinner speech. 

June 7, 2018

08:00 – 08:50

Registration and Coffee

08:50 – 09:00

Welcome

Thomas W. Gilligan, Tad and Dianne Taube Director, Hoover Institution

09:00 – 09:40

Keynote Speech

Chair: John B. Taylor, Stanford University and Hoover Institution

Lars Peter Hansen, University of Chicago
Comparative Valuation Dynamics in Models with Financing Restrictions

09:40 – 10:40

Parallel Session I

Model Estimation and Shocks

Chair: Volker Wieland, IMFS, Goethe University Frankfurt and CEPR

Maik Wolters, University of Jena
How the Baby Boomers' Retirement Wave Distorts Model-Based Output Gap Estimates
Discussant: Christopher Tonetti, Stanford University

Massimo Ferrari, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore  
Monetary Policy Spillovers, Global Commodity Prices and Cooperation (jointly with A. Filardo, M. Lombardi, C. Montoro)
Discussant: Hashmat Khan, Carleton University

DSGE Models and Financial Frictions

Chair: Michael Binder, IMFS, Goethe University Frankfurt

Paolo Gelain, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
DSGE Models with Financial Frictions: Does Frequency Matter? (jointly with C. Foroni, M. Macellino)
Discussant: Gregor Boehl, IMFS, Goethe University Frankfurt

Sacha Gelfer, Bentley University
Financial Crises, Recoveries and Labor Market Dynamics: Evidence from a Data-Rich DSGE Model
Discussant: Jonathan Swarbrick, Bank of Canada

10:40 – 11:00

Coffee Break

11:00 – 12:30

Parallel Session II

Financial Crisis and Recession

Chair: Arvind Krishnamurthy, Stanford University

Callum Jones, International Monetary Fund
Household Leverage and the Recession (jointly with V. Midrigan, T. Philippon)
Discussant: Elena Pastorino, Stanford University

Gernot Müller, University of Tübingen
Financial Repression in General Equilibrium (jointly with A. Kriwoluzky, A. Scheer)
Discussant: Arvind Krishnamurthy, Stanford University

Francesco Furlanetto, Norges Bank
Output Gap, Monetary Policy Trade-offs and Financial Friction (jointly with P. Gelain, M. Sanjani)
Discussant: Jorge Abad, CEMFI

Model Uncertainty and Monetary Policy

Chair: John B. Taylor, Stanford University and Hoover Institution

Martin Bodenstein, Federal Reserve Board   
Employment, Wages and Optimal Monetary Policy (jointly with J. Zhao)
Discussant: Chad Jones, Stanford University

Francesca Rondina, University of Ottawa
Model Uncertainty and the Direction of Fit of the Postwar U.S. Phillips Curve(s)
Discussant: Felix Strobel, IMFS, Goethe University Frankfurt

Raymond J. Hawkins, University of California, Berkeley
Monetary Policy Rules and PID Control
Discussant: Sebastian Guarda, Central Bank of Chile

12:30 – 13:30

Lunch

13:30 – 15:00

Plenary Session I: Nonlinearity and Recession

Chair: Joshua D. Rauh, Hoover Institution, Stanford University

Thomas M. Mertens, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
What to Expect from the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence from Derivatives Prices (jointly with J. Williams)

Mathias Trabandt, Free University of Berlin
Resolving the Missing Deflation Puzzle (jointly with J. Lindé)

John H. Cochrane, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Observational Equivalence and a Simple Fix for Zero Bound Puzzles

15:00 – 16:30

Poster Session I

Tomohide Mineyama, Boston College
Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity and Inflation Dynamics during and after the Great Recession

Felix Strobel and Philipp Lieberknecht, IMFS, Goethe University
MMCI and Macroeconomic Model Database 2.3

Hashmat Khan, Carleton University
The Shifts in Lead-Lag Properties of the U.S. Business Cycle (jointly with J. Brault)

Carlos Zarazaga, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Fiscal Stabilization and the Credibility of the U.S. Budget Sequestration Spending Authority (jointly with R. Hu)

Jonathan Swarbrick, Bank of Canada
Business Cycles in Space (jointly with T. Holden)

Nuno Paixao, Bank of Canada
Housing Prices and Consumer Spending: The Bank Balance Sheet Channel

Matt Jensen, American Enterprise Institute
Open Source Policy Simulation: Tax-Calculator, B-Tax, BRC, TaxData, C-TAM

Lars Peter Hansen, University of Chicago
MFM Executive Committee Projects

16:30 – 18:00

Parallel Session III

Unconventional Monetary Policy and Money

Chair: Pablo Kurlat, Stanford University

Francesco Ferrante, Federal Reserve Board
Risky Lending, Bank Leverage and Unconventional Monetary Policy
Discussant: David Laszlo Zeke, University of Southern California

Robert Kurtzman, Federal Reserve Board  
Misallocation Costs of Digging Deeper into the Central Bank Toolkit (jointly with D. Zeke)
Discussant: Alexander Clymo, University of Essex

Linda Schilling, Ecole Polytechnique, CREST
Some Simple Bitcoin Economics (jointly with H. Uhlig)
Discussant: Pablo Kurlat, Stanford University

Heterogeneous Agents and Bounded Rationality

Chair: Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California, Berkeley

Michael Binder, IMFS, Goethe University Frankfurt
Heterogeneous Information, Diverse Higher-Order Beliefs and Business Cycles: Propagation Mechanisms and Empirical Performance (jointly with M. Farkas, V. Wieland)
Discussant: Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California, Berkeley

Karl Schmedders, University of Zurich
Re-use of Collateral: Leverage, Volatility, and Welfare
Discussant: Hanno Lustig, Stanford University

Jonathan Benchimol, Bank of Israel
Optimal Monetary Policy under Bounded Rationality (jointly with L. Bounader)
Discussant: Mátyás Farkas, IMFS, Goethe University Frankfurt

18:15 – 20:30

Dinner

Dinner Speech: John B. Taylor (Stanford University and Hoover Institution)
The Financial Crisis Ten Years On: What Have We Learned about Models and Policy

June 8, 2018

08:00 – 08:30

Coffee

08:30 – 10:00

Plenary Session II: Macroeconomic Models and Policy

Chair: Michael Binder, IMFS, Goethe University Frankfurt

Roger Farmer, University of Warwick, NIESR and UCLA
Keynesian Economics without the Phillips Curve

Michael Kumhof, Bank of England
Towards a New Monetary Theory of Exchange Rate Determination (jointly with A. Cesa-Bianchi, A. Sokol, G. Thwaites)

Volker Wieland, IMFS, Goethe University Frankfurt and CEPR
On the Macroeconomic and Fiscal Effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (jointly with P. Lieberknecht)

10:00 – 10:30

Coffee Break

10:30 – 12:00

Parallel Session IV

R-Star, Zero Bound and Monetary Policy

Chair: Carlos Zarazaga, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Claus Brand, European Central Bank
Taylor-Rule Consistent Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest (jointly with F. Mazelis)
Discussant: Jae Won Lee, University of Virginia

Olaf Posch, University of Hamburg  
Resurrecting the New-Keynesian Model: (Un)conventional Policy and the Taylor Rule
Discussant: Yevgeniy Teryoshin, Stanford University

Gregor Boehl, IMFS, Goethe University Frankfurt
U.S. Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound (jointly with F. Strobel)
Discussant: Carlos Zarazaga, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Structural and Tax Policy in Macro Models

Chair: Grace Weishi Gu, University of California, Santa Cruz

Woong Yong Park, Seoul National University
Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Tax Rate Changes (jointly with J.W. Lee, S. Bhattarai, C. Yang)
Discussant: Philipp Lieberknecht, IMFS, Goethe University Frankfurt

Jan in 't Veld, European Commission
Growth Effects of Structural Reforms and Their Impact on the Functional Income Distribution (jointly with J. Varga, W. Roeger, L. Vogel)
Discussant: Paul Luk, Hong Kong Baptist University

Herbert Dawid, Bielefeld University
Cohesion Policy and Inequality Dynamics: Insights from a Heterogeneous Agents Macroeconomic Model (jointly with P. Harting, M. Neugart)
Discussant: Grace Weishi Gu, University of California, Santa Cruz

12:00 – 13:00

Lunch

13:00 – 14:00

Parallel Session V

Banks, Leverage and Crises

Chair: Maik Wolters, University of Jena

Kalin Nikolov, European Central Bank
Bank Capital in the Short and in the Long Run (jointly with C. Mendicino, J. Suarez, D. Supera)
Discussant: Tim Robinson, The University of Melbourne

Ester Faia, Goethe University Frankfurt
Ambiguous Leverage Cycles (jointly with M. Bassanin, V. Patella)
Discussant: Nuno Paixao, Bank of Canada

Numerical Methods, Macro Models and Climate Change

Chair: Volker Wieland, IMFS, Goethe University Frankfurt and CEPR

Kenneth Judd, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Numerical Dynamic Programming with Verification and Uncertainty Quantification: An Application to Climate Policy (jointly with Y. Cai)
Discussant: Eric Aldrich, University of California, Santa Cruz

Yongyang Cai, Ohio State University
To Build or Not to Build? Capital Stocks and Climate Policy (jointly with E. Baldwin, K. Kuralbayeva) 
Discussant: Andreas Tryphonides, Humboldt University Berlin

14:00 – 15:30

Poster Session II

Andreas Tryphonides, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
Set Identified Dynamic Economies and Robustness to Misspecification

Alexander Clymo, University of Essex
Firm Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound

Jorge Abad, CEMF
Breaking the Feedback Loop: Macroprudential Regulation of Banks' Sovereign Exposures

Tim Robinson, The University of Melbourne
Macroprudential Policies and Credit Creation (jointly with S. Elias)

Paul Luk, Hong Kong Baptist University
Dynamics of Secured and Unsecured Debt Over the Business Cycle (jointly with T. Zheng)

Junior Maih, Norges Bank and BI Norwegian Business School
Modelling Occassionally Binding Constraints Using Regime-Switching (jointly with A. Binning)

Sebastian Guarda, Central Bank of Chile
Xmas: An Extended Model for Analysis and Simulation (jointly with B. García, M. Kirchner, R. Tranamil)

Mátyás Farkas and Lazar Milivojevic, IMFS, Goethe University Frankfurt
MMCI and Macroeconomic Model Database 2.3

Lars Peter Hansen, University of Chicago
MFM Executive Committee Projects

15:30 – 17:00

Plenary Session III: Macroeconomic Models and Estimation

Chair: John B. Taylor, Stanford University and Hoover Institution

Marco Del Negro, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
DSGE Forecast of the Lost Recovery (jointly with M. Cai, M. Giannoni, A. Gupta, P. Li, E. Moszkowski)

Matthieu Darracq Pariès, European Central Bank
Synopsis of the Euro Area Financial Crisis (jointly with P. Jacquinot, N. Papadopoulou)

Christopher Otrok, University of Missouri, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime Switching Approach (jointly with G. Benigno, A. Foerster, A. Rebucci)

17:00

Concluding Remarks

Volker Wieland, IMFS, Goethe University Frankfurt and CEPR