According to the Council members Professor Christoph Schmidt, Professor Peter Bofinger, Professor Lars Feld, Professor Isabel Schnabel, and Professor Volker Wieland, the external economic environment has developed slightly weaker than projected. As a result, the GCEE now expects German gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 1.5 % in 2015 that is 0.1 percentage points less than expected in the Annual Report 2015/16, which had been presented in last November.
The average unemployment figures should be reaching again the 3 million mark in the year 2017. The Council expects about 250.000 additional unemployed people as a consequence of the refugee migration to Germany.
Due to the falling oil price, the Council members expect consumer prices to increase by only 0.2 percent in the euro area in 2016. For 2017 this should be even higher, reaching 1.1 percent.
Regarding the latest easing of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy, Volker Wieland takes a critical view. “The ECB has reacted much more strongly than in the past”, he said during the presentation of the economic forecast in Frankfurt.
The economic forecast in the media:
dpa (via Südwestpresse): "Zwischen Exportsorgen und Konsumfreude"
Bild.de: "Mini-Zinsen - wie lange noch?"
Börsen-Zeitung: "Wirtschaftsweise mahnen EZB"
FAZ: "EZB hält Banken für zu schwach"
Die Welt: "Wirtschaftsweise erwarten mehr Arbeitslose"
Council of Economic Experts presents Annual Report