The authors focus on gas imports and discuss price effects, alternative suppliers of natural gas, and the potential for saving and replacing natural gas. They also provide an overview of estimates of the consequences on the economic outlook if the conflict intensifies, coming to the conclusion that, in any case, the GDP impact of a complete cessation of Russian energy supply to Germany could be well of similar magnitude as the GDP impact of the global financial crisis or the coronavirus crisis.
IMFS Working Paper 166
Eva Berger, Sylwia Bialek, Niklas Garnadt, Veronika Grimm, Lars Other, Leonard Salzmann, Monika Schnitzer, Achim Truger, Volker Wieland
"A potential sudden stop of energy imports from Russia: Effects on energy scrutiny and economic output in Germany and the EU"