In this paper, Michael Binder and Marcel Bluhm propose a new modeling framework to measure how the output growth of a country is affected when it participates in an IMF loan program. The paper finds evidence that the output growth effects of the IMF loan participation vary systematically with the country's institutional record, and that the output growth effects are significantly positive only if the loan program participation is coupled with sufficient improvement of this institutional record.
The IMFS Working Paper No. 78 "On the Conditional Effects of IMF Loan Program Participation on Output Growth" is available for download here.