If the ECB had ended its bond-buying program early in 2021 and raised interest rates for the first time over the summer of 2021, "it would have been a year earlier than it is now - and would already have a clear impact of monetary policy on inflation today." The ECB still has several major interest rate steps ahead of it, Wieland is convinced.
At the current 0.75% deposit rate and 9.9% inflation, the real interest rate is deeply negative and will remain so for some time in view of high inflation expectations. He does not expect the recession to solve the inflation problem by itself, so to speak. Wieland considers the ECB inflation forecast for 2024 to be too optimistic.Since, according to empirical estimates, interest rate hikes have the maximum effect on the inflation rate after four to six quarters, it is always better to react to increasing inflation risks as early as possible, he said. "If the ECB had initiated the interest rate turnaround in the summer or fall of 2021, this would already have a significant impact now," says Wieland.
Börsen-Zeitung: "Das stärkt nicht gerade das Vertrauen in die EZB" (€)