Frankfurt Financial Stability Group Meeting
January 16, 2026
Room 1.801, Casino
Campus Westend
Goethe University Frankfurt
A growing body of research has highlighted the information content of central bank announcements and the extent to which financial markets react not only to policy actions but also to the signals they convey about the economic outlook and policymakers’ private assessments. These information effects and their implications for the interpretation of high-frequency market surprises are central to understanding how monetary policy is transmitted through asset prices, expectations, and risk premia. At the same time, these mechanisms raise important questions for financial stability: how markets process, amplify, or misinterpret central bank signals can influence volatility, liquidity, and the broader perception of policy credibility. Understanding these dynamics is thus key to assessing the effectiveness of modern monetary policy in market-based financial systems.
If you would like to attend the meeting, please send an e-mail to ffsg@imfs-frankfurt.de. Attendance is free but registration ends on December 17, 2025.
Program
| 09:00 – 09:15 |
Coffee and Registration |
| 09:10 – 09:15 |
Welcome |
| 09:15 – 10:00 |
Growth vs. Value: The Role of Cash Flow Duration in Monetary Policy Transmission |
| 10:00 – 11:00 |
Interest Rate Surprises When the Fed Doesn’t Speak |
| 11:00 – 11:30 |
Coffee |
| 11:30 – 12:15 |
Reconstructing the Yield Curve – Structural Determinants of Factors |
| 12:15 – 13:00 |
R-Star Rules: Misperceptions and Multiplicity |
| 13:00 – 13:45 |
Lunch |
| 13:45 – 14:30 |
The Systematic Origins of Monetary Policy Shocks |
| 14:30 – 15:30 |
The Kalshi Prediction Market and the Fed Information Effect |
| 15:30 – 16:00 |
The Asymmetric and Persistent Effects of Fed Policy on Global Bond Yields |
| 16:45 – 17:30 |
Disentangling Central Bank Information, Fed Response to News and Monetary Policy Shocks |
| 17:30 |
End of Event |