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Frankfurt Financial Stability Group Meeting

January 16, 2026

Room 1.801, Casino
Campus Westend
Goethe University Frankfurt

A growing body of research has highlighted the information content of central bank announcements and the extent to which financial markets react not only to policy actions but also to the signals they convey about the economic outlook and policymakers’ private assessments. These information effects and their implications for the interpretation of high-frequency market surprises are central to understanding how monetary policy is transmitted through asset prices, expectations, and risk premia. At the same time, these mechanisms raise important questions for financial stability: how markets process, amplify, or misinterpret central bank signals can influence volatility, liquidity, and the broader perception of policy credibility. Understanding these dynamics is thus key to assessing the effectiveness of modern monetary policy in market-based financial systems.

Program

09:00 – 09:15

Coffee and Registration

09:10 – 09:15

Welcome

09:15 – 10:00

Equity Duration and Monetary Policy
Eric Offner (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management)

10:00 – 11:00

Interest Rate Surprises When the Fed Doesn’t Speak
Keynote Presentation by Silvia Miranda-Agrippino (Oxford University)

11:00 – 11:30

Coffee

11:30 – 12:15

Reconstructing the Yield Curve – Structural Determinants of Factors
Alexander Meyer-Gohde (Goethe University and IMFS)

12:15 – 13:00

R-Star Rules: Misperceptions and Multiplicity
Elmar Mertens (European Central Bank)

13:00 – 13:45

Lunch

13:45 – 14:30

The Systematic Origins of Monetary Policy Shocks
Klodiana Istrefi (European Central Bank)

14:30 – 15:30

The Kalshi Prediction Market and the Fed Information Effect
Keynote Presentation by Eric Swanson (University of California, Irvine)

15:30 – 16:00

Reaching for Beta
Emanuel Mönch (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management)

16:45 – 17:30

Disentangling Central Bank Information, Fed Response to News and Monetary Policy Shocks
Marek Jarocinski (European Central Bank)

17:30

End of Event