New IMFS Working Paper by Hendrik Hegemann on "Energy Price Shocks and Inflation in the Euro Area"
The Euro Area experienced historically high inflation in 2022, with energy prices playing a central role. This paper examines the joint impact of various energy price shocks on inflation in the Euro Area, with a focus on the period encompassing the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war. Using a structural VAR model, the analysis identifies shocks to gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, natural gas, and electricity prices and evaluates their effects on headline and core inflation.
Historically, before the pandemic, gasoline price shocks had the most substantial impact on the Euro Area HICP, while the effects of other energy price shocks were relatively minor. Spillover effects to non-energy goods were very limited, implying negligible effects on core inflation. Extending the sample to May 2023 reveals a notable change in these relationships. In particular, natural gas price shocks become substantially more important and exhibit significantly more persistent effects on inflation.
In contrast to previous findings for the United States, the results suggest that energy prices, especially natural gas price shocks, played a major role in the surge in the HICP and core HICP during 2021 and 2022 within the Euro Area.