1st Research Conference of the Macroeconomic Modelling and Model Comparison Network (MMCN)
June 19-20, 2017
Goethe University Frankfurt
Campus Westend
Summary
The analysis of macroeconomic models and the financial sector served as a starting point for the conference’s special topic: the effects of quantitative monetary policy in structural models. In his presentation Douglas Laxton of the IMF’s Economic Modeling Division studied the risks of excessive credit expansion and asset price bubbles. As he pointed out, distinguishing good and bad credit expansion ex ante would require a large amount of micro-level data analysis. However, "models can tell very little whether a financial crisis is coming", he warned.
Analyzing the ECB’s approach to unconventional monetary policy, Roberto Motto of the ECB argued that the the central bank started late with its unconventional monetary policy. In his view, this could be explained by the fact that the ECB’s price stability objective was defined as a range rather than a symmetric inflation target. He explained that signs of deanchoring in the face of commodity price deflation and demand shortfalls called for a bold strategy. Looking at monetary theory in a low-interest world, John Roberts of the Federal Reserve Board pointed out that monetary policy strategies based on traditional simple policy rules lead to poor economic performance when the equilibrium real interest rate is low and volatile economic activity and inflation.
About 90 participants from academia, central banks, ministries, financial institutions and companies, students and young researchers took part in the first research conference of the network. In further sessions, researchers discussed models with regard to fiscal as well as macroprudential policy, cross and multicountry models and unconventional monetary policy. Moreover, young academics presented their findings regarding issues in modelling financial markets and macroprudential policy and, on the other hand, issues in monetary and fiscal policy.
John B. Taylor on the MMCN Conference in his blog "Economics One"
June 19, 2017
| 08:00 – 08:50 |
Registration and Coffee |
| 08:50 – 09:00 |
Welcome |
| 09:00 – 10:15 |
Plenary Session: Macroeconomic Models and the Financial Sector Chair: Volker Wieland, IMFS, Goethe University Winston Dou, University of Pennsylvania Douglas Laxton, International Monetary Fund |
| 10:15 – 10:30 |
Coffee Break |
| 10:30 – 12:15 |
Parallel Session: Fiscal Policy Chair: Gernot Müller, University of Tübingen Werner Roeger, European Commision Egle Jakucionyte; Sweder van Wijnbergen, University of Amsterdam Annabelle Mourougane, OECD Parallel Session: Financial Markets and Macroprudential Policy Chair: Maik Wolters, University of Jena Günter Coenen, European Central Bank, Peter Karadi, Sebastian Schmidt, Anders Warne Olivier Pierrard, Banque Centrale du Luxembourg, Patrick Fève Giovanni Lombardo, Bank for International Settlements, et al. |
| 12:15 – 13:30 |
Lunch |
| 13:30 – 15:30 |
Poster Session 1: Issues in Modelling Financial Markets and Macroprudential Policy Jonathan Swarbrick, University of Surrey Luca Onorante, European Central Bank, Matija Lozej Aliaksandr Zaretski, Emory University Galip Kemal Ozhan, University of St. Andrews Petar Mihaylovski, University of Hamburg Massimo Ferrari, Catholic University of Milan Richard Harrison, Bank of England Kalin Nikolov, European Central Bank Grzegorz Dlugoszek, Humboldt University Berlin Jan Zacek, Charles University Alina Tänzer and Lazar Milivojevic, IMFS, Goethe University |
| 15:30 – 15:45 |
Coffee Break |
| 15:45 – 17:00 |
Plenary Session: Natural Rate of Interest Chair: Michael Binder, IMFS, Goethe University Marco Del Negro, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Maik Wolters, University of Jena |
June 20, 2017
| 08:00 – 08:30 |
Coffee |
| 08:30 – 09:45 |
Plenary Session: Monetary Policy, Zero Bound and International Spillovers Chair: Volker Wieland, IMFS, Goethe University John Roberts, Federal Reserve Board Roberto Motto; Massimo Rostagno, European Central Bank |
| 09:45 – 10:00 |
Coffee Break |
| 10:00 – 11:30 |
Parallel Session: Cross- and Multi-Country Models Stefano Neri, Banca d'Italia Niki Papadopoulou, Central Bank of Cyprus Gernot Müller, University of Tübingen Parallel Session: Unconventional Monetary Policy Chair: Thorsten Drautzburg, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Romanos Priftis, European Commission, Lukas Vogel, Stefan Hohberger Sarah Mouabbi, Banque de France, Jean-Guillaume Sahuc Howard Kung, London Business School |
| 11:30 – 13:15 |
Poster Session 2: Issues in Monetary and Fiscal Policy; Presentation of DBnomics Zuzana Mucka, Council for Budget Responsibility Ginters Buss, Latvijas Banka Kerk Phillips, Brigham Young University Gülserim Özcan, Bilkent University Cristiano Cantore, University of Surrey Andrej Drygalla, Halle Institute for Economic Research Nathaniel Throckmorton, College of William & Mary Jonathan Benchimol, Bank of Israel Thomas Brand, CEPREMAP, Paula Forteza |
| 13:00 – 14:00 |
Lunch |
| 14:30 – 16:00 |
Parallel Session: Money, Finance and Fiscal Policy Chair: Werner Roeger, European Commission Michael Kumhof, Bank of England Johannes Pfeifer, University of Cologne Miguel Faria-e-Castro, New York University |
| 15:00 – 16:00 |
Parallel Session: Solution and Estimation Methods Chair: Kai Christoffel, European Central Bank Lilia Maliar, Stanford University, Serguei Maliar, Vadym Lepetyuk Pierlauro Lopez, Banque de France, David Lopez-Salido, Francisco Vazquez-Grande |
| 16:00 – 16:15 |
Coffee Break |
| 16:15 – 17:15 |
Plenary Session: Business Cycles: Methods and Modelling Chair: Michael Binder, IMFS, Goethe University Alistair Dieppe, European Central Bank, Georgios Georgiadis, Martino Ricci, Ine van Robays, Björn van Roye Thorsten Drautzburg, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |