IMFS Conference on Monetary and Financial Stability and Macro-Financial Modelling
November 6-7, 2025
Casino 1.801
Campus Westend
Goethe University Frankfurt
Program, November 6, 2025
| 08:40 – 09:10 |
Registration and Coffee |
| 09:10 – 09:15 |
Welcome Guido Friebel, Dean, Faculty of Economics and Business, Goethe University Frankfurt |
| 09:15 – 10:15 |
Session 1: Understanding Inflation Chair: Volker Wieland, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability “Downsizing as Price Adjustment: Micro Evidence and Implications for Inflation” (with C. Matthes, T. Walker, K. Carstensen, J. A. Gaetos and N. Lee) (Slides) “Endogenous Transitions to a Low-Inflation Equilibrium: Estimation of a Nonlinear New Keynesian Model” (with D. Hecker) (Slides) |
| 10:15 – 10:45 |
Coffee Break |
| 10:45 – 11:45 |
Session 2: Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy Chair: Alexander Meyer-Gohde, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability “Inflation Forecast Targeting Revisited” (with C. Conrad and Z. Enders) (Slides) “Managing the Risks of Inflation Expectation De-anchoring” (with M. Farkas) (Slides) |
| 11:45 – 13:00 |
Lunch |
| 13:00 – 14:00 |
Session 3: Public Finance and Inflation Chair: Michael Haliassos, Goethe University Frankfurt “Fiscal Constraints on Monetary Policy: How Debt Limits Monetary Effectiveness” (with C. Bayer and Z. Gong) (Slides) “Fiscal Seigniorage and Price Level Determination in a Currency Union” |
| 14:00 – 14:30 |
Coffee Break |
| 14:30 – 15:30 |
Session 4: Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy Chair: Michael Haliassos, Goethe University Frankfurt “Monetary Policy and Supply Side Turnover” (with H. Weber) (Slides) “Inflation, Fiscal Rules and Cognitive Discounting” (with C. Walsh) (Slides) |
| 15:30 – 17:00 |
Poster Session When to Look Through and When to Act: Central Bank Responses to Oil vs. Gas Supply Shocks (Poster) Beyond the Peak: Revisiting Outlook-at-Risk in Real-Time Evidence from a Copula-Augmented Distributional VAR (CADVAR) (Poster) Heterogeneity in Optimal Fiscal Consolidation under the Revised EU Debt Framework (Poster) German Sub-Sovereign Yields and Monetary Policy (Poster) |
Program, November 7, 2025
| 09:00 – 09:30 |
Coffee |
| 09:30 – 10:30 |
Session 5: Climate, Energy, and Macroeconomic Modelling Chair: Michael Binder, Goethe University Frankfurt “The ENV-FIBA Model for Climate Risk Analysis—Framework, Model Details, and Guide” (Slides) “Macroeconomic effects of carbon-intensive energy price changes: A model comparison” (with M. Darraq Pariès, L. Durand, M. Gonzalés, R. Priftis, O. Röhe, M. Rottner, E. Silgado-Goméz, N. Stähler, and J. Varga) (Slides) |
| 10:30 – 11:00 |
Coffee Break |
| 11:00 – 12:00 |
Session 6: Monetary Policy Rules and Financial Indicators Chair: Michael Binder, Goethe University Frankfurt “Rules vs. Discretion: Decoding FOMC Policy Deliberations” (with M. D. Bordo and H. Martínez) (Slides) “Looser, Tighter, Clearer – a new Financial Conditions Index for the euro area” (with G. Martorana and J. Mistak) |
| 12:00 – 13:00 |
Session 7: Natural Rates and the Role of Expectations Chair: Helmut Siekmann, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability “Real Equilibrium Interest Rates in the Euro Area” (with L. Brandão-Marques) “R-stars Across the Atlantic – The Role of Policy Expectations” (with Z. Jakab and J. Lindé) |
| 13:00 – 14:00 |
Lunch |
| 14:00 – 14:30 |
Session 8: Central Bank Balance Sheets and Monetary Frameworks Chair: Alexander Meyer-Gohde, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability “FX interventions as a form of unconventional monetary policy” (with C. Winter) (Slides) |
| 14:30 – 15:30 |
Session 9: Communication and Transmission of Policy Shocks Chair: Helmut Siekmann, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability “Monetary-Intelligent Language Agent” (with F. Geiger, D. Kanelis, and D. Sola) (Slides) “Import Tariff Transmission in a Production Network” (with M. Khalil and P. Rouillard) (Slides) |
| 15:30 – 15:35 |
Closing Remarks Volker Wieland, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability |